Who can predict the long run? Not I, however I can inform you some issues we are able to count on over the following few months in Arkansas politics.
We are able to count on that Gov.-elect Sarah Huckabee Sanders will get most of what she desires within the upcoming legislative session. That’s what occurs when a brand new governor is elected with 63 % of the vote and can work with a Legislature the place 82 % of its members are a part of her celebration.
What does Sanders need? One large factor is extra faculty alternative, which she prefers to name “parental empowerment.”
Sanders desires to make it simpler for fogeys to ship their children to personal faculties, presumably with assist from state funds. However we are able to count on this may trigger fairly a ruckus from public faculties, their advocates and a few legislators, together with these in her celebration.
Given the opposing realities, we are able to count on the ultimate outcome can be vital however less-than-radical change. Once more, that’s an expectation, not a prediction.
In the meantime, public faculty academics can count on a hefty minimal instructor wage enhance popping out of the legislative session. Arkansas is chasing neighboring states, together with Mississippi, which are paying extra.
What else can we count on from the upcoming legislative session? For one, a big new jail. The state’s present ones are full, leading to prisoners being housed in county jails to the purpose they’re additionally full.
Arkansas is in a disaster state of affairs on the similar time it had a $1.628 billion funds surplus final fiscal 12 months. The talk won’t be about whether or not the state ought to construct a brand new jail, however about how large it ought to be. Relatedly, we are able to additionally count on reforms to parole legal guidelines in a state the place prisoners are spending solely a fraction of their sentences behind bars. Having extra beds will assist.
Given the aforementioned surplus, we are able to count on to see cuts to the state revenue tax, which Sanders has mentioned ought to be phased out. Companies likewise can be calling for reducing company revenue taxes.
However on the opposite aspect, we are able to count on teams representing numerous public must ask for a few of these surpluses as nicely – beginning with hospitals, a few of that are in hassle. Bo Ryall, president and CEO of the Arkansas Hospital Affiliation, informed me three of the state’s roughly 85 acute care hospitals are in “quick jeopardy of closure,” whereas one other six to eight could possibly be 30-60 days away from being in dire form.
They’re on this state of affairs as a result of they face rising labor and provide bills however can’t function like different companies by passing on the prices to their prospects. As an alternative, they have to take no matter their main payers – insurance coverage corporations, Medicare and Medicaid – pay them.
Medicaid, which serves lower-income and different people, has not raised its every day in-patient fee of $850 since 2007. It pays that quantity whether or not the affected person has had open-heart surgical procedure or a damaged leg. Some hospitals get extra, nevertheless it’s not sufficient. Count on Ryall and his hospital members to plead for extra money from legislators.
One other large query hanging over Arkansas state politics is whether or not Gov. Asa Hutchinson will run for president.
He clearly desires to do it and absolutely is aware of, at age 72, that it’s in all probability his final likelihood. He’s been in politics a very long time and understands he’d be an extended shot. If he can elevate the cash to make a reputable race, I count on he’ll do it, nevertheless it’s but to be seen if that would be the case. He informed me in an interview in his workplace Dec. 20 that he’ll determine within the first quarter of this 12 months.
Training, prisons, tax cuts and hospitals can be an enormous a part of Arkansas politics this 12 months. The incoming governor will dominate the scene in her first session. In the meantime, the departing governor could run for president, as a few his current predecessors have completed.
We’ll see what else the long run holds. Count on the sudden.
Steve Brawner is a syndicated columnist revealed in 18 retailers in Arkansas. E-mail him at brawnersteve@mac.com. Comply with him on Twitter at @stevebrawner.
