If there’s one factor we will be grateful for on the subject of the banking disaster, it’s this: a minimum of it means fewer headlines about Fed charge hikes!
That’s really a very good factor for us, as a result of, because the Fed assertion hinted on Wednesday, the Fed is getting set to lastly pivot. It’s the second everybody has been ready for all alongside! And it appears like nearly nobody is paying consideration.
However we contrarian dividend buyers are. And there are a few closed-end funds (CEFs) on the market which might be well-positioned to revenue from the Fed’s quiet shift: the Nuveen S&P 500 Dynamic Overwrite Fund (SPXX) and the Nuveen Nasdaq 100 Dynamic Overwrite Fund (QQQX), which yield 7.8% and seven.3% respectively.
The great factor about this duo is that apart from monitoring the main indexes (the S&P 500 and NASDAQ) they provide us these excessive dividends by promoting name choices on their portfolios—a method that does significantly properly when volatility spikes up.
And the underlying reality right here is that, sure, it’s a bullish signal that the banking disaster has made the Fed much less of a problem.
Final 12 months’s bear market priced in all the charge hikes we noticed each final 12 months and in 2023, so a couple of weeks again, when markets just lately thought it likelier that the Fed would increase by 50 foundation factors eventually Wednesday’s assembly, shares didn’t transfer—everybody was too busy specializing in the failing regional specialty banks.
Nevertheless, the Fed has additionally signaled it should pivot from increased charges sooner or later. The query is when. Now, futures markets are calling for the primary charge lower to return in July, simply two conferences from now.
Whether or not the lower comes then or later, getting the timing unsuitable by a couple of months isn’t an enormous deal within the grand scheme—which is why (past the truth that the regional-bank state of affairs has knocked the Fed out of the headlines) the precise timing of the Fed’s pivot has additionally develop into a bit much less necessary just lately.
Play the Shift Towards Decrease Charges
SPXX and QQQX are sound decisions on this atmosphere, the latter being an much more aggressive play on priced-in Fed charge hikes, on account of its give attention to the tech-heavy NASDAQ. Meantime, each funds supply us call-option earnings to revenue from volatility.
Now let’s check out their latest efficiency, which supplies us an enormous trace on every fund’s valuation. Regardless of having earnings streams 5 occasions that of their index-fund friends, these CEFs are each kind of monitoring their indexes.
Notice that that is whole NAV return, which means the earnings that managers are incomes by investing available in the market. And also you’d anticipate them to carry out as they’re, since these CEFs observe the NASDAQ and S&P 500. However CEFs are completely different—which is why their market-price returns haven’t essentially stored up.
QQQX’s market-price return is fairly near its NAV, which interprets right into a 5.8% premium to NAV as of this writing. However SPXX is a unique story…
SPXX is definitely down on a market-return foundation. This has introduced SPXX’s premium to NAV, which was over 8% at first of the 12 months, all the way down to a bit lower than par. That’s a transparent shopping for alternative to play on later buy-in from CEF buyers. Plus you get SPXX’s 7.8% earnings stream whilst you look forward to that to occur.
Of the 2, I’d lean towards QQQX now, nonetheless. The truth that its market value and NAV returns are comparable for 2023 tells us that CEF buyers are probably rotating property out of the lower-risk SPXX and into the extra aggressive QQQX.
This additionally means that buyers suppose tech is extra oversold than the broader market, and the broader market’s publicity to banks is an effective motive to pivot. For that motive I anticipate extra motion into QQQX over the medium time period.
Michael Foster is the Lead Analysis Analyst for Contrarian Outlook. For extra nice earnings concepts, click on right here for our newest report “Indestructible Income: 5 Bargain Funds with Steady 10.2% Dividends.”