More FOMO In March?

Most traders hoped that January’s file good points would proceed for the remainder of the yr however as an alternative most are pleased that February is over. On February 5^th, I commented that the file name shopping for three days earlier was “in all probability an indication that the worry of lacking out (FOMO) has gotten too excessive.” I believed “that the inventory market could also be prepared for a setback’.

The Dow Jones Industrial Common, which had been main the averages since October, was hit the toughest, down 4.2%. It was adopted by a 2.6% decline within the S&P 500 whereas the Nasdaq Composite was down simply 1.1%.

Earlier than Thursday’s down hole open the S&P 500 was already down virtually 0.5% for the week. The rebound from Thursday’s lows shocked me and plenty of different analysts because the S&P 500 closed up 1.9% for the week. The Dow Jones Transportation Common was the very best performer up 3.3% adopted by a 2.7% acquire within the Nasdaq 100 Index.

The SPDR Gold Shares (GLD
GLD
) had been up 2.5% a bit higher than the two.1% acquire within the iShares Russell 2000. To this point in 2023 each the Nasdaq 100 and the Dow Jones Transportation Common are up over 12% YTD. That’s greater than double the YTD acquire for the S&P 500 and ten occasions the 0.7% YTD acquire within the Dow Jones Industrials.

The market internals reversed final week, closing with 2082 advancing points and 1167 declining points. That was in distinction to the prior week when there have been 3 times extra declining points than advancing ones. In last week’s review of the weekly NYSE Advance/Decline line, I commented that “robust NYSE A/D numbers are wanted to point that the correction is over.”

The NYSE Composite, which is extra consultant of the widespread inventory, dropped under the 20-week EMA over the previous two weeks however then closed above it gaining 1.7%. The January excessive at 16,222 is now the important thing barrier on the upside with the weekly starc+ band at 16,721. The 2-week low at 15,342 is now the help stage to look at.

The NYSE All Advance/Decline line moved via its downtrend, line c, and its WMA in early January (level 1). This optimistic sign was strengthened by the transfer above the longer-term downtrend, line b, at level 2. The hole between the A/D line and its WMA 4 weeks in the past was an indication it was prolonged on the upside. The flip increased this week is an indication that the pullback is over.

The early motion Thursday didn’t point out a flip increased because the averages traded decrease on the open. The Spyder Belief (SPY
PY

SPY
) made a brand new correction low at $392.33 because it got here near the converging 100-day MA (black) and the 200-day (dashed inexperienced) earlier than closing increased at $397.81.

The A/D numbers had been damaging for many of Thursday however did shut optimistic. SPY gapped increased on Friday and rallied strongly all through the day to shut above the 20-day EMA (purple) and the month-to-month pivot at $402.74.

The S&P 500 A/D line had been under its EMA for the previous 9 days earlier than turning optimistic on Friday. It’s nonetheless under the resistance at line b. The NYSE Shares Solely A/D line had been stronger than the S&P and it closed above its downtrend, line c, signaling an finish to the correction. The every day NYSE All A/D line has additionally accomplished its correction because it moved via the resistance at line d. It could now take a drop under the current lows to show these A/D traces damaging.

By 1:15 PM Friday (see Tweet) it was fairly evident that the every day A/D traces had been going to show optimistic because the NYSE All A/D numbers had been virtually 5-1 optimistic. This was an indication that it was time so as to add to lengthy positions in shares and ETFs. One of many ETFs I favored was the iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA
EFA
) that has 796 holdings and a yield of two.44%.

EFA closed up 2.7% final week and it seems that the correction from the January excessive at $72.44 is over. The 61.8% Fibonacci resistance at $71.72 was overcome on the prior rally which was an indication the key decline was over. The weekly starc+ band is at $74.65 with extra resistance within the $78-$80 space.

EFA was favored due to its relative performance RS analysis because the downtrend from 2021, line a, was overcome on the finish of 2022. This indicated it was a brand new market chief. The amount elevated final week in line with the top of a correction. The OBV is holding above its WMA and help at line b.

One other market-leading ETF is the iShares Dow Jones US Dwelling Development (ITB
ITB
) which moved above its weekly starc+ band 5 weeks in the past that indicated it was prepared for a pullback. The inventory market bears, a lot of whom take a look at the markets from a basic standpoint, have little rationalization for the power of ITB. Many have proclaimed the dying of the house constructing business since final yr however ITB accomplished a backside early within the yr by shifting above the resistance at line a.

ITB was up 2.5% final week because the pullback has held to this point effectively above its rising 20-week EMA at $64.15. The preliminary upside targets are within the $74 after which the $78-$80 space. An in depth above the brand new month-to-month pivot at $69.13 this week will additional help the bullish case.

The weekly RS moved via resistance, line a. in early December indicating it was a market chief. It has held effectively above its rising WMA as costs have pulled again. The on-balance-volume (OBV) closed slightly below its WMA and wishes a transfer the resistance at line c, to verify a backside.

The yield on the ten -Yr T-Be aware declined on Friday after coming near the every day starc+ band on Thursday. This put some strain on the US Greenback and helped increase the metals and crude oil. The MACDs have reached the downtrend from the October highs so the transfer increased in yields might be stalling. The MACD-His continues to be optimistic however has fashioned decrease highs (see arrow) because it has diverged from costs.

The daily analysis of the E-mini S&P Futures additionally signifies that the decline from the February excessive at 4207.50 is over with Friday’s acquire. The projected upside targets are at 4171.8 after which 4237.8. A transfer above the February excessive, with no check of the October lows, is prone to change the view of many bearish Wall Avenue strategists.

The month-to-month pivot in purple is at 4042 with the 20-day EMA at 4034 and would search for some comfort by mid-week. There may be good help within the 4000 space. The StoConf, Jerry A’s modification of George Lane’s stochastics, has turned optimistic after dropping under the inexperienced zone and the decrease regression channel.

If the averages shut increased for the subsequent a number of weeks and attain the resistance within the 4140 -4160 space we’re prone to see extra traders once more develop a worry of lacking out (FOMO) like they did early in February. I might recommend that you just proceed to favor shares and ETFs which might be main the S&P 500 based mostly on the relative efficiency evaluation.